London, 13 January. Independent energy consultant, Kathryn Porter, has released a devastating new report warning of serious risks facing both the electricity and gas grids in the UK.
- The electrification of heating, transport and industry could add between 7 and 10 GW of electricity demand by 2030. Data centres could add an additional 6GW and Government targets suggest around 15GW of new demand.
- By 2030, it is expected that 12-17GW of reliable gas and nuclear power generation could shut down. Replacing these takes years to get approval for and subsequently build.
- Wind and solar power sources have grown quickly but are intermittent. Power levels are highest on cold, still nights where these power sources aren’t generating.
- There is a 65-85% probability of regional electricity rationing or blackouts by 2030 and a baseline risk of 5-10% of one of these cascading into a full grid failure.
- While an “energy trilemma” of decarbonisation ambitions, affordability and security is always there, investing in life extensions for current gas generation is the safest strategy to avoid blackouts
- The grid can only be secured with greater investment into constant power sources such as a significant extension of new gas-fired power generation capacity.
- Declining output of oil and gas in the North Sea means some pipelines may become unviable. We could see cliff-edge reductions in gas coming onto the British grid; meaning we don’t have enough gas to meet demand on cold winter days.
Porter warns that Britain’s electrification targets are politically ambitious but economically and operationally unsustainable. She argues that without urgent action to secure affordable electricity, accelerate grid upgrades, and invest in new dispatchable generation (especially gas), most electrification targets will be missed, and security-of-supply risks will rise well before 2030.
GWPF Head of Policy, Harry Wilkinson, said:
“Britain’s failed climate policies are on a collision course with reality. Without urgent action now, the country is facing an unprecedented energy crisis.”
Speaking to the GWPF, Kathryn Porter said:
“DESNZ’s response to my report is to accuse me of scaremongering. I would rather see their plan for addressing these risks rather than calling me names.”
‘Electrification – can the grid cope?’ can be read here.